Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released on Thursday that also shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate tied with Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), the three-term Democrat he hopes to unseat in November.
Commissioned and conducted by The Washington Post, the pollsters found Harris was supported by 48 percent of respondents, including both likely voters and registered voters. Trump had the support of 47 percent of respondents.
The pollsters reported a margin of error of 3.6 percent, meaning their survey suggests Trump and Kamala are statistically tied in Pennsylvania.
McCormick’s tie with Casey is better news for the Republican Senate candidate, as RealClearPolling shows he has lagged behind Casey in almost all previous surveys.
In a five-way race including third-party candidates, The Post pollsters found Casey leading with 47 percent of support and McCormick with 46 percent.
With the other candidates removed, and respondents exclusively given the choice of Casey and McCormick, the Democrat’s slight lead disappeared, leaving the men tied at 48 percent among likely voters and 47 percent among all registered voters polled.
It is the second recent survey to show McCormick and Casey tied, following a poll released by CNN earlier this month, which similarly showed the candidates tied with 46 percent of the vote.
The poll may contain other warning signs for Harris, Casey, and other Democrats as they look to repeat the victory declared for President Joe Biden in 2020.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents told pollsters they support fracking for oil and natural gas, compared to just 19 percent who said they are opposed and 13 percent who either skipped the question or did not have an opinion.
While the Harris campaign has maintained its candidate supports fracking, both McCormick and Trump have noted that Harris specifically vowed to ban fracking during her failed presidential campaign in 2020.
The poll also showed that 51 percent of Pennsylvanians trust Trump to manage the economy, 52 percent of Pennsylvanians to address immigration, and 50 percent of Pennsylvanians to increase crime and safety.
Harris, by comparison, was only trusted by a majority of the voters on the issue of abortion. On that issue, 52 percent said they trust the Democrat and just 34 percent that they trust Trump.
Potentially worse for the vice president, just 33 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the economy under the Biden-Harris administration, with 66 percent offering a negative analysis.
On the positive end of the spectrum, just 4 percent of respondents told pollsters the economy is excellent under Biden-Harris, while 39 percent said it is poor.
When asked which candidate would be better at “[p]rotecting American democracy,” respondents were divided. Forty-eight percent said Harris is most likely to support democracy, and 45 percent named Trump the candidate they view most competent.
Democrats and Harris have repeatedly argued Trump is a threat to democracy, while Trump in his debate against Harris argued it is the Biden-Harris administration who threatened the democratic process by weaponizing the Department of Justice against its political opponents.
Despite tracking the poll, the RealClearPolling average for Pennsylvania shows Harris leading Trump by just under 2 percent.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris. Photo “Bob Casey” by Bob Casey. Photo “Dave McCormick” by Dave McCormick. Background Photo “Voting Booths” by Tim Evanson. CC BY-SA 2.0.
