Tag: FiveThirtyEight

‘Truly Unprecedented:’ Donald Trump Is Dominating the Early Primary Season Like Nothing in Modern History

Pennsylvania Daily Star Staff

Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the early primary season in an unprecedented third bid for the White House, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

This Republican primary cycle is like none other as the frontrunner is a former president, has a massive lead in the polls, his former vice president is running against him and Trump has two federal indictments under his belt. Polling analysts stressed to the DCNF the stark difference between this GOP primary season and previous cycles, arguing that it’s difficult to draw comparisons in modern history.

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Commentary: The Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch

Admin

Americans will soon get to cast their first votes since the science–denying COVID mask and vaccine mandates, the second wave of COVID-related blowout spending and subsequent inflation, and the COVID-related school closures that allowed parents to see what the public schools are really teaching their boys and girls – including that they can choose whether they are boys or girls. With all of these matters implicitly on the ballot, how are things shaping up going into Election Day?

Starting with the House of Representatives, six months ago Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report projected “a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.” At the time, I responded, “While things could change over the next six months (although the cake is probably largely baked), a GOP gain of 30 to 40 House seats appears more likely at this stage of the contest than Walter’s projected GOP gain of 15 to 25 seats.”

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Polls Find Key Races Too Close to Call

The Center Square
United States Capitol

Election day comes Tuesday, putting a range of major issues up for grabs as both parties battle for control of the House, Senate and gubernatorial races around the country.

The latest polling shows a tight but favorable electoral landscape for Republicans. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis and compilation of generic polls found voters overall prefer that Republicans control Congress by 1.2 percent.

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New Poll: Oz Leads Fetterman in Pennsylvania Senate Race

Bradley Vasoli

For the first time in the 2022 race for U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, a poll shows Republican Mehmet Oz leading Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. 

The poll from Wick Insights indicates the celebrity surgeon has the support of 49.1 percent of likely voters while Fetterman garners the backing of 44.6 percent. 

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Analysts Now Treating Pennsylvania Senate Race as a Toss-Up

Bradley Vasoli

After an uninterrupted stretch of good polling news for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) in his U.S. Senate race against Republican celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz, major analysts now suggest the race could go either way. 

The Cook Political Report and the data aggregator FiveThirtyEight both came out with assessments of recent survey data leading them to conclude Oz can win. 

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