GOP Primary Turnout Could Signal Massive Republican Midterms Victories

People voting

High turnout in the 2022 Republican primaries could signal a red wave that allows the GOP to retake Congress in November, according to data from JMC Analytics & Polling.

As of Wednesday, GOP voters are projected to have made up about 54% of the turnout in the Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania primary races, according to JMC. Republican turnout increased to about 61% when the states that held primaries prior to Tuesday are included.

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Roe v. Wade Has Completely Transformed the Midterms

Both Republicans and Democrats have been forced to reconfigure their election strategies only six months before the midterms due to the unprecedented leak from the Supreme Court indicating Roe v. Wade will be overturned.

Many Democrats have made clear they intend to hammer opponents across the aisle on the implications of Roe being overturned and while Republicans have celebrated the decision, several have largely focused on the leak and others have been reluctant to press the abortion issue.

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Democrats Attempt to Make Abortion Key Issue of Midterms

In the wake of the news that the Supreme Court is preparing to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democratic politicians and strategists are seeking to turn abortion into the new dominant issue of November’s midterm elections.

Axios reports that strategists hope to target swing states with contested seats for governor and the U.S. Senate, particularly states where abortion could be outlawed if Roe is ultimately overturned. One anonymous strategist pointed to the finality of the leaked draft opinion, written by Justice Samuel Alito, which determines that both Roe, originally decided in 1973, as well as the follow-up case Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992, must be completely overturned so that the question of abortion can be decided on a state-by-state basis.

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Commentary: Republicans Are Poised for a Strong Midterm as Poll Numbers Show Strong Discontent Among Democratic and Independent Voters

Thirty-seven percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Independents say America is on the wrong track, according to the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted from March 14 to March 15, signaling strong discontent among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters headed into the Nov. 2022 Congressional midterms.

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