Commentary: Trump’s Trials Don’t Hurt Him in the Polls

Donald Trump at Rally

Donald Trump is out on bail in four jurisdictions facing dozens of felony charges and it does not seem to affect his ratings in the surveys. Many people wonder why.

First of all, let me assure you that Donald Trump is not made of Teflon. Rather, he is probably the most polarizing politician on earth right now. While he does have a very enthusiastic base, a majority of Americans in almost every poll have an unfavorable opinion about him. So it’s not that the various attacks, scandals, allegations, and bad press he has faced ever since he has entered politics have not affected his ratings. They have. Remember that even on the day when he won the presidential election back in 2016, he was the most negatively seen winning presidential candidate in history.

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Commentary: Polls Showing Trump Behind Are Off the Mark

Donald Trump

For the past several months, the public has been inundated by polls. national polls, state polls, issue polls. Yet, the 64-dollar question remains: Who is winning for President, Trump or Biden?

Over the past two months, the two presumptive nominees have swapped first place multiple times with Trump mostly in the advantage. So, the short answer is that the race is so close that neither is really ahead, at least we cannot say who is ahead in that national ballot test with high certainty. Trump is probably ahead very narrowly and has been since February.

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Commentary: Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?

Donald Trump

During the two months since President Biden delivered his State of the Union address, a wide variety of legacy news outlets have been at pains to portray an infinitesimal improvement in his polling as a shift of momentum in the presidential race. Last week, for example, USA Today breathlessly reported that “Trump and Biden are ‘darn near even’ in the 2024 election.” If this was meant to provide moral sustenance for worried Democrats it was thin gruel indeed. Biden is an incumbent president struggling to keep up with a challenger most of whose time and money has been devoted to fighting off a ruthless lawfare campaign. Moreover, if history is any guide, it’s probable that the polls understate the strength of Trump’s support.

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Voters Head to the Polls in 16 States for Super Tuesday as 2020 Rematch Appears Likely

People Voting

Voters are heading to the polls in 16 states to cast their primary ballots on Super Tuesday as a 2020 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden appears likely.

Biden has been holing up at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, since Friday, according to his official schedule. He is set to return to the White House on Tuesday afternoon while his State of the Union address is scheduled for Thursday evening. 

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Trump Leading Biden by More than He Ever Has Before

Trump Biden

Former President Donald Trump is currently polling better against President Joe Biden than he has at anytime in the last two presidential election cycles as the two men head toward a likely rematch in November.

Trump is ahead of Biden by 3.8 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which is his largest lead this cycle against the president. The lead is also far above Trump’s record for the last two cycles, where he never led Biden in the RCP average and was only ahead of Hillary Clinton during two separate periods in 2016.

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Almost 40 Percent of New Hampshire Voters are Unaffiliated, Can Vote in GOP Primary and Possibly Skew Results

With efforts to close New Hampshire’s presidential primary likely failing, the state’s primary could be determined by the state’s independent voters, who make up nearly 40 percent of the state’s electorate.

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Commentary: Trump’s Popularity Is Not Inexplicable

In a routine that has become familiar of late, CNN’s Jim Acosta reports the ongoing ascendancy of Donald Trump in the polls with a mixture of dismay and disbelief. With these emotions front and center on his November 5 cable show, Acosta grimly reported the latest polling on the 2024 presidential candidates, noting that Trump is now ahead of Biden in five out of six crucial swing states. In Nevada, where Trump lost by 2 percentage points in 2020, Trump is now up by 11 points over Biden.

As Acosta proceeded to interview experts in an attempt to make sense out of this, the prevailing message was Biden is too old, and that has voters worried. David Frum, a reliable uniparty stalwart, reassured Acosta that “Trump is only three years younger than Biden,” and that Trump is so weak and elderly that he “can’t even open a jar of pickles.” The men then proceeded to applaud Biden as physically hale and hearty, dismissing concerns about his age as unwarranted.

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Campaigning Against Kamala: With Biden’s Future a Question Mark, Republican Candidates Raise Red Flags About His No. 2

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis\’ campaign blasted out a warning email on Friday, reminding Iowa voters what so many across the country fear: Vice President Kamala Harris could one day be in charge.

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As Indictments Pile Up, Trump Running Even or Better with Biden in New Polls

Despite facing three criminal indictments, former President Donald Trump is crushing his GOP presidential nominee competitors and running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to the latest polls.

In battleground Arizona, a new Emerson College poll finds Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election.

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GOP Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to Join Elon Musk and Investor David Sacks on X.com

Heading into Iowa for a big weekend after rising in the polls, Ohio businessman and GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy will join Elon Musk and investor David Sacks live Friday afternoon on x.com.

The conversation on the social network platform formerly known as Twitter is set for 4:30 p.m. Central Time, hours before Ramaswamy joins much of the rest of the packed field of Republican presidential candidates at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner fundraiser in Des Moines.

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As Ramaswamy Rises in the Polls, Political Knives Come Out

Political outsider Vivek Ramaswamy is heading back to Iowa this week with a lot of momentum and a big target on his back in the Republican Party presidential nomination chase.

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RFK Jr. Hauls in Millions in Campaign Cash, but Lags Far Behind Biden’s Billion-Dollar Campaign

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be a long-shot candidate for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, but he appears to be hauling in the kind of campaign cash that could give President Joe Biden and his re-election efforts some heartburn.

The Kennedy Jr. campaign last Friday announced its first million-dollar day just hours before the close of the critical July quarterly reporting period.

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North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum Launches Bid for White House, Joining Crowded Field of GOP Contenders

At a Fargo events center packed with family, friends and neighbors, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum stressed his small-town roots, his success in building a multi-billion dollar software business on the Great Plains, governing a growing state, and his vision for an innovative America in announcing his bid for the White House.

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DeSantis Enters Presidential Race with ‘Skewed’ Narrative He’s Better Positioned to Beat Biden than Trump

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially launched his presidential campaign Wednesday, ending months of speculation and ratcheting up what promises to be an intense battle for the Republican Party nomination. 

DeSantis enters the race as a top tier candidate, but still lagging far behind frontrunner Donald Trump, according to just about every poll out there. 

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U.S. Senator Tim Scott Launches Presidential Campaign as Living Example of the Land of Opportunity

U.S. Senator Tim Scott made it official Monday, launching his campaign for president in the North Charleston, SC, hometown that informed his core belief: That the United States of America is “the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression.”

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Pollster: Biden’s Re-Election Campaign Announcement ‘Like Christmas’ to Trump, Republicans

President Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign Tuesday, insisting he’s running again to “stand up for fundamental freedoms.” 

Republicans in the nation’s presidential battleground states say the out-of-touch 80-year-old Democrat has cost Americans their freedoms — and their finances. 

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Commentary: Democrats’ 8-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot Evaporated

Don’t look now, but Democrats’ 8-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot question from a month ago has evaporated in the latest Economist-YouGov poll of registered voters, which now shows the race for Congress tied, 44 percent to 44 percent on Sept. 24-27.

On Aug. 28-30, Democrats were leading Economist-YouGov’s generic ballot 46 percent to 38 percent. Leading the change in the state of the race is largely an apparent collapse of support for Democrats among younger adults, and a strengthening of support for Republicans among older adults.

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Commentary: Talking Heads Push One Predictor to Key Elections but Ignore the Raw Numbers Behind Them – and That Changes Everything

There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.

Let’s start with the propaganda.

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Polls: Majority of American Voters Want Abortion Restrictions

Two polls released this week have found most American voters want limits on abortion.

Results of a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States poll released Wednesday found 57.6 percent of American voters want abortion to be legal in only specific circumstances, while a Rasmussen Reports survey published Tuesday showed 67 percent of likely U.S. voters say abortion should not be legal past the first three months of pregnancy.

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Polls Show Majority of Americans Agree with Overturning Roe v. Wade

Despite the narrative of the abortion industry and its political and media allies, several recent polls show the majority of Americans agree the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade and return decisions about abortion to the states.

Tim Carney at the Washington Examiner observed a YouGov poll published last week found 64% of Americans believe the Mississippi law that is at the center of the Supreme Court case – one that bans abortions past 15 weeks of pregnancy – is either acceptable, as is, or not restrictive enough.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll: Biden Tanking Among Pennsylvania Independents

Joe Biden waving

A new Franklin & Marshall College (F&M) Poll shows President Joe Biden’s positivity numbers have fallen from 38 percent to just 25 percent among independents since August.

The survey also found that, broadly speaking, more Pennsylvania voters now rate President Joe Biden as doing a “poor job” than at any previous point in his presidency.

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Commentary: ‘America First’ Has Answers for U.S. Crisis of Confidence

Joe Biden

A majority Americans begin 2022 full of worry and dread. During President Biden’s first year in the White House, societal anxiety surged, including among voters who identify as independents and Democrats. In the newest Axios/Momentive year-end survey, 2021 saw a 50% increase in fear about what 2022 will bring among independents. Democrats weren’t much more sanguine. They began last year with refreshing optimism as their party took control of the White House and Congress, with only 19% of Democratic voters declaring themselves fearful about 2021. By year’s end, that number had surged to 45%.

Reflecting this dour assessment, the RealClearPolitics polling average of Joe Biden’s approve/disapprove ratio also receded sharply for the last year, from a stellar 20-percentage-point surplus in his favor on Inauguration Day, to a minus- 10-point rating.

Given this environment, Republicans naturally grow more confident about the midterm elections. But taking nominal control of Capitol Hill won’t be enough. Will Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy and their lieutenants be content with stopping the woke and socialist-inspired agenda of progressives? Or will they boldly implement a full-throttle populist nationalist “America First” agenda?  

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